AFL Preview Round 1: Hawks v Magpies

Round 1 continues with a Saturday night blockbuster between traditional rivals Hawthorn and Collingwood at the ‘G. The Pies have a poor recent record against the Hawks, and will be up against it to improve on their 1-10 record without Jamie Elliot, Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack, Jordan ‘I blame my dog’ De Goey, Daniel Wells and Levi Greenwood. It’s an all too familiar tale for the men in black and white.

Form
Despite going 0-2 in the JLT series, the Hawks looked pretty slick at stages- and the small forward brigade in particular will give opposition defences nightmares. New recruit Jarman Impey will provide some much needed leg speed and already looks well integrated, while Jaeger O’Meara finally got some solid minutes into his fragile body. They might be slightly out of flag contention but there was plenty to like for Hawks fans in the preseason.

Nathan Buckley swapped the magnets around in the JLT series in an attempt to jump-start a lacklustre forward line, and it certainly worked against the Bulldogs- with Mason Cox booting 4 goals in the 33 point win. Jeremy Howe and new defender Darcy Moore took plenty of marks in the back half, but the experiment was a huge failure in their 60 point loss to the Giants. Time will tell.

Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn were 6-16 on the Over-Under in 2017
– Collingwood has lost 10 of their last 11 against Hawthorn
– Adam Treloar averages 29 disposals and a goal per game against the Hawks
– The Pies were 4-7 ATS at the ‘G last year
– Tom Mitchell averages 125 Fantasy points against Collingwood
– In Round 1, 2017- Overs went 9-0
– Collingwood were 8-5 at the MCG last season while Hawthorn were 4-7

Betting Data
2018 Line: 0-0
2018 Over-Under: 0-0
2017 Line: Hawthorn- 10-12; Collingwood- 9-13
2017 Over-Under: Hawthorn- 6-16; Collingwood- 11-11

What To Expect
The Wolf is keen to take the $1.84 on offer for Hawthorn in the H2H market, with Collingwood missing some key personnel that they struggle to win without. The Pies might have the slight edge in the midfield stakes, but the Hawks are far stronger at either 50 arc- it’ll be a happy team at Hawthorn come Saturday night.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 14

Recommended Bets

Best: Hawthorn WIN ($1.84)
Value: Hawthorn 1-24 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.00)
First Goal Scorer: Jarman Impey ($26.00)

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