AFL Finals Preview: Tigers v Giants

AFL betting

Richmond play in their first preliminary final in 16 years when they host a GWS outfit looking to bury the demons of last year’s loss to the Western Bulldogs when they were heavily favoured at home.

Richmond are flying high on the back of seven wins in their last eight meetings. The Tigers finished third on the ladder with a 15-7 record. They ranked third defensively but a poor eighth in scoring. Richmond have kept opponents to 65 or fewer in five of their last seven matches. The Tigers have hit 91 or more in five of their last six meetings. The Tigers have won five straight at the MCG, all by three goals or more.

GWS finished fourth on the ladder with a 14-6-2 record but suffered a 36-point loss to minor premiers Adelaide before returning to form with a devastating win against West Coast. The Giants had won four straight before a last round 44-point loss away to Geelong before their bad loss to Adelaide. The Giants finished the season as the fifth best defensive team and the sixth ranked scoring team. GWS are 7-5-1 v Top 8 teams this year.

Stats That Matter

– Richmond have won 6 of 8 all-time v GWS.
– The under has hit in the last five Tigers-Giants games.
– GWS are 5-6 ATS with a 7-4 under record at then MCG.
– Richmond have covered 11 of their last 13 at the MCG.
– The under has hit in 9 of the Tigers’ last 11 at the MCG.
– The Tigers are 11-8 ATS at the MCG as a favourite of fewer than two goals.
– Outsiders have covered 58% of finals since 2012.
– GWS have covered just 4 of their last 11 interstate games.
– GWS are 0-3 ATS interstate as an underdog of two goals or fewer.
– GWS have gone under in seven straight interstate after scoring 110 or more.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Richmond 17-6, GWS 9-15
2017 Over-Under: Richmond 7-16, GWS 12-12

What To Expect
Expecting Richmond to win this comfortably if they handle the pressure of such a big situation. They are a far better betting proposition with their defensive hustle. The top play in the game though is the under. The Tigers are a huge under team while the Giants are a big under team interstate. All the angles line up for a low-scoring prelim.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 19

Recommended Bet
Under 162.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
With the defensive pressure expected to be immense, expect one of the real big names to boot the first goal.

Recommended Bet
BuildABet: R
iewoldt/Patton/Greene/Martin First Goal ($2.60)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Preliminary Finals

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