AFL Finals Preview: Crows v Cats

AFL betting
Adelaide v Geelong
Friday 7:20pm at Adelaide Oval
Best: Geelong +18.5 ($1.91)
Value: Patrick Dangerfield 3+ Goals ($2.75)

Preliminary final weekend is upon us with a ripping affair between the top two teams on the premiership ladder in Adelaide and Geelong.

Form

Adelaide finished the season as minor premiers with a 15-6-1 record on the back of the best attack in the AFL. They ranked fourth in defence. They annihilated GWS in the opening week of the finals to earn a home preliminary final. Adelaide have lost just two of their last 10 games. The Crows have been kept to 84 or fewer in their last three.

Geelong finished the season second the ladder with a 15-6-1 record. Geelong were hammered by Richmond in the first weekend of the finals before a dominant win over Sydney last week. The Cats have lost just four of their last 16 games. Geelong have conceded 70 or fewer in five of their last seven. The Cats are 6-4-1 against Top 8 teams this year.

Stats That Matter

– Geelong have won 5 of the last 6 against Adelaide but the Crows won the last meeting.
– Geelong have covered 6 of the 9 games against Adelaide since 2012.
– Adelaide are 32-17 ATS at the Adelaide Oval including a 16-9 ATS record at the ground when favoured by more than three goals.
– Geelong are 3-2 ATS with a 5-0 under record at Adelaide Oval.
– The Crows are 4-2 ATS at home after conceding 60 or fewer points.
– Geelong are 3-6 with a 2-7 ATS record in finals since 2012.
– Outsiders have covered 58% of finals since 2012.
– Geelong have covered 9 of their last 11 as an underdog.
– The Cats are 6-8 ATS as an underdog of two or more goals.
– Geelong have covered their last three interstate games after conceding 70 or fewer points.
– Adelaide have covered 7 of their last 10 night games.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Adelaide 15-8, Geelong 12-12
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 9-14, Geelong 11-13

What To Expect
Geelong are certainly capable of providing another upset after their stunning performance against Sydney. The Cats looked premiership favourites in their win over the Swans, a truly remarkable win. Adelaide are always tough beats at home but not sure the week off helps. The Cats have a great record as an underdog and go well against Adelaide and look the value.

How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 7

Recommended Bet
Geelong +18.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Patrick Dangerfield booted four goals against Sydney and will be looking for another bag against his former team. Has eight bags of three or more goals this year.

Recommended Bet
Patrick Dangerfield 3+ Goals ($2.75)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Preliminary Finals

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