Mick’s Picks: Round 14 AFL Preview

Mick Malthouse: Round 14 Preview

Mick Malthouse is back on the William Hill team in 2018 and Mick’s Picks will be a weekly article throughout the season.

Richmond showed that they still have the hunger and desire to succeed when beating Geelong last week but what really impressed me was their pace. They outran Geelong all day, applied pressure and forced turnovers that resulted in goals. They keep losing more personnel as well. Sydney managed to beat West Coast at home but the Eagles didn’t do too much wrong. They aren’t suited on the SCG and it is highly unlikely they will have to go back there again this season. Adelaide were very poor and at 6-7 with thirteen wins likely required to make the finals, their season is probably over.

Round 14 Tips

Match
(Time AEST)
Mick’s Pick
West Coast v Essendon (Thu 19:50) West Coast 1-39 ($2.10)
Port Adelaide v Melbourne (Fri 19:50) Melbourne WIN ($2.45)
Hawthorn v Gold Coast (Sat 13:45) Hawthorn -49.5 ($1.91)
Brisbane v GWS (Sat 16:35) Brisbane +23.5 ($1.91)
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne (Sat 19:25) North Melbourne -31.5 ($1.91)
Collingwood v Carlton (Sun 15:20) Collingwood -46.5 ($1.91)

West Coast v Essendon (Thu 19:50)
West Coast will be missing their two key forwards in Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling. It shouldn’t change the result but it will probably make the game a bit closer than expected. The Eagles have been brilliant at home this season and have too much midfield power for the Bombers. Essendon have been better of late, winning three of their last four, but at home I expect the home side to be too strong.
Mick’s Pick: West Coast 1-39 ($2.10)

Port Adelaide v Melbourne (Fri 19:50)
Melbourne come off a disappointing loss to Collingwood before the bye, but it was almost like they were due for a loss after winning six matches in a row. Port on the other hand were very good winning against Richmond a fortnight ago and thumped the Bulldogs at this ground last week. Both of these sides are very good at their best, but I think Melbourne’s pace can trouble the Power. If you look at Port’s record, they have tended to struggle against sides who have speed. The ruck and midfield battle will be fascinating as well. The Demons do tend to travel well – they have won their last two at Adelaide Oval – and I am going for them in a close one.
Mick’s Pick: Melbourne WIN ($2.45)

Hawthorn v Gold Coast (Sat 13:45)
The Gold Coast are on the road again which is the last thing they need. The Hawks will enjoy hosting them at Launceston where they have a tremendous record. Really, there’s no case for Gold Coast. The Hawks have been going along very nicely as demonstrated by their thumping win over the Crows last week, and being in ninth spot they have everything to play for. I feel for Stuart Dew as I think he has done a good job in a tough situation but it looks like another big loss coming up for them.
Mick’s Pick: Hawthorn -49.5 ($1.91)

Brisbane v GWS (Sat 16:35)
Brisbane should be able to dominate the ruck with Stefan Martin and I think that will give them a good foundation to be competitive here. GWS can struggle against teams with a dominant ruckman as they don’t defend well from stoppages. That fact, combined with Brisbane’s decent home form and the fact that GWS are still suffering from key injuries, make Brisbane look attractive with the head start.
Mick’s Pick: Brisbane +23.5 ($1.91)

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne (Sat 19:25)
The Bulldogs have an injury list as long as your arm and even if Marcus Bontempelli and Toby McLean get up, they will be less than 100%. It has been a nightmare season at Whitten Oval and it doesn’t look like getting better anytime soon. North are continuing to press for a chance at finals and with fresh legs after the bye they will be far too strong for the wounded Dogs.
Mick’s Pick: North Melbourne -31.5 ($1.91)

Collingwood v Carlton (Sun 15:20)
Carlton could not possibly be as bad as they were last week. Or could they? Collingwood have been very impressive over the last month, winning four straight, most recently an emphatic win over Melbourne. Carlton’s only win this season did come when bouncing back after a big loss, but that was against an Essendon side devoid of confidence. The Pies are a vastly different proposition and I expect them to win easily.
Mick’s Pick: Collingwood -46.5 ($1.91)

 

All prices correct as of 3:30pm, Wednesday 20 June. 

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