Mick’s Picks: Round 10 AFL Preview

Mick Malthouse: Round 10 Preview

Mick Malthouse is back on the William Hill team in 2018 and Mick’s Picks will be a weekly article throughout the season.

Last week West Coast showed they are the real deal. They have shown they can win on the road, and they destroyed a very good side at home, even without one of their key playmakers in Luke Shuey. The Tigers managed to hang in there in the first half, but faded out late which is most unlike them. Essendon finally responded with a thumping victory over Geelong – and now the Cats and also the Hawks have pressure on to make a statement this week after a poor showing last week. It is still hard to get a bearing on the 8 even at this point of the season – it will be so tight at the end of the season that if teams take their foot off the accelerator or have a bad run with injuries, they can fall out of contention pretty quickly.

Round 10 Tips

Match
(Time AEST)
Mick’s Pick
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (Fri 19:50) Collingwood -16.5 ($1.91)
Richmond v St. Kilda (Sat 13:45) Richmond 40+ ($1.60)
Brisbane v Sydney (Sat 16:35) Brisbane +23.5 ($1.91)
Geelong v Carlton (Sat 19:25) Carlton +48.5 ($1.91)
GWS v Essendon (Sat 19:25) GWS 1-39 ($2.20)
Hawthorn v West Coast (Sun 13:10) West Coast -5.5 ($1.91)
Melbourne v Adelaide (Sun 15:20) Melbourne -4.5 ($1.91)
Fremantle v North Melbourne (Sun 16:40) Fremantle WIN ($1.85)

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs (Fri 19:50)
Collingwood did what they needed to do last week against St. Kilda, aided by a terrific performance by Jordan De Goey, and a repeat of that effort should see them over the line again. The Dogs come off a game against Adelaide in shocking conditions where they overused the football for much of the game. The Bulldogs should be better under the roof as they have played their best football there, but Collingwood can stretch their defence and have too much class through the middle of the ground.
Mick’s Pick: Collingwood -16.5 ($1.91)

Richmond v St. Kilda (Sat 13:45)
The Tigers will be disappointed by their fade out last week against the Eagles and should respond. The Eagles forward line was on fire, with Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras dominating, both by getting plenty of the ball and scoring themselves, but also by nullifying Alex Rance. Fortunately for the Tigers, the Saints forward line is the least talented in the competition and they should have no such issues this week. Richmond should win this comfortably.
Mick’s Pick: Richmond 40+ ($1.60) 

Brisbane v Sydney (Sat 16:35)
Brisbane come off a terrific win against Hawthorn and what most impressed me was their ability to hit the scoreboard. They won’t have it so easy this week though as Sydney play a very tight, disciplined style of football and will bring a strong physical presence. Sydney have been in good, not great form, and with Brisbane having their confidence up following some good performances, I think the Lions with the head start are the way to go here.
Mick’s Pick: Gold Coast +41.5 ($1.91)

Geelong v Carlton (Sat 19:25)
Both sides were deeply disappointing last week. The Cats greatly miss Scott Selwood and Daniel Menzel. Selwood because he gives them great defensive pressure through the midfield, and Menzel because of his ability to hit the scoreboard. Nonetheless it is Carlton they are playing and they should be able to win even without their full strength team. The Blues were smashed by Melbourne last week, but if they can replicate their effort from two weeks ago against Essendon, who of course came out and beat Geelong, they will be competitive here.
Mick’s Pick: Carlton +48.5 ($1.91) 

GWS v Essendon (Sat 19:25)
If you went on last week’s form, it would be Essendon, but this year’s form has it as toss up with a lean towards the Giants at home. The Giants have desperately missed Josh Kelly and he should come back this week. Essendon looked like a different team last week as they used their pace across the ground – it is amazing the difference that Orazio Fantasia makes to their team. Essendon have been good for one week, but they need to show that they can produce week in, week out.
Mick’s Pick:  GWS 1-39 ($2.20)

Hawthorn v West Coast (Sun 13:10)
The Eagles have surprised everyone, including me this season. Their forward line has been outstanding, and it might worry the Hawks because their tall defenders, in particular James Frawley, have struggled for form at times this year. James Sicily will have to play a big game to try and hold things together across half back. The balance looks a bit better for West Coast as they have the defensive personnel to keep the Hawks major threats – Jack Gunston and Luke Breust – in check. I expect the Eagles to get the job done here.
Mick’s Pick: West Coast -5.5 ($1.91)

Melbourne v Adelaide (Sun 15:20)
Both sides come into this side in great form, and it should make for a ripping match. Adelaide were super disciplined in beating the Bulldogs last week, while Melbourne thumped Carlton. The test for Melbourne is whether they can maintain their concentration and intensity for four quarters. The ruck duel favours the Demons, but if Sam Jacobs can keep Max Gawn in check it will go a long way towards the Crows winning the game. Another area where the Demons is favoured is with pace – they have it, and the Crows can be exposed due to lack of it. In all, given that Adelaide are still missing key personnel. I expect the Dees to win.
Mick’s Pick:  Melbourne -4.5 ($1.91)

Fremantle v North Melbourne (Sun 16:40)
Fremantle were shocking against Sydney last week but they are a different proposition at home. North Melbourne have been pretty good everywhere. It will be of major importance whether Joel Hamling plays – he is the Dockers best chance of stopping Ben Brown. The ruck duel should be fascinating as well, with Aaron Sandilands taking on Todd Goldstein. Big Sandi hasn’t missed a game this year and both of these players are enjoying a late career renaissance. There should be very little in this but at home I am going with Fremantle, narrowly.
Mick’s Pick: Fremantle WIN ($1.85)

All prices correct as of 12:30pm, Thursday 24 May. 

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