JLT Tips – Week 3

We are into our third and final week of JLT action before the real stuff starts, and clubs are naming strong squads as they ramp up their preparations for the season. The Tigers looked very impressive as they kickstarted their Premiership defence, smashing the hapless Bombers by 87 points while the Kangaroos were competitive at stages despite falling to the Demons by 53 points.
Week 3 action sees some big rivals clash, and promises to see some good value for punters. See tips and preview below.


Tigers v Kangaroos – Wednesday 7.05pm, Carlton

Notable absentees

Tigers: Bachar Houli, Jack Higgins
Kangaroos: Majak Daw, Jed Anderson, Luke McDonald, Sam Wright

It may only be preseason, but Richmond made a big statement when they comfortably accounted for the Bombers to the tune of 14 goals. Their frenetic pressure was present in spades, and the Bombers looked all at sea- buckling under the weight of a strangling defence and frenzied tackling pressure all over the ground. Dustin Martin picked up where he left off last season with 24 disposals and 1 goal (remembering there is less game time in JLT) while Alex Rance completely blanketed the dangerous Joe Daniher. Promisingly for the Tigers, 2016 draftee Jack Graham continued the promise he showed in the back end of 2017- contributing 8 tackles, 14 disposals and a goal.
The side named for this clash doesn’t differ a whole lot from that game, which is bad news for the developing Kangaroos. While they pushed the Demons at stages, their inability to counter the momentum the Dees generated with the wind meant they were always chasing their tails. The much-hyped Luke Davis-Uniacke was disappointing on debut, but will of course be given time to prove that his potential will equal elite output, while Hawks recruit Billy Hartung was industrious as always, nabbing 2 goals to go along with his 17 disposals.
The Kangaroos have shown a penchant for succumbing to big blow-outs, and the Wolf thinks this leads to a big Tigers victory. Things certainly look to be going swimmingly down in Tigerland.
Best Bet: First Quarter Line RICHMOND -6.5 ($1.87)
Other Bet: Richmond 40+ ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jack Reiwoldt ($8.00) / Kayne Turner ($21)

Demons v Saints – Thursday 7.05pm, Casey Fields
Notable absentees

Demons: Jordan Lewis, Alex Neal-Bullen, Jack Viney
Saints: Hugh Goddard, Billy Longer, Josh Battle, Jack Lonie

The Dees got their preseason campaign off to a seamless start with a cruisy victory over the Kangaroos in Week 1, while the Saints were outdone by a Patrick Cripps masterclass last week. Looking to put a very disappointing end to 2017 behind them, the Demons showed a willingness to move the names around on the whiteboard- with Jake Melksham, in particular, a stand-out in his new role up forward; which saw a goal, 5 inside 50’s and 19 disposals. Their forward line looks like finally have reached a perfect balance, with spearhead Jesse Hogan no longer the be all and end all- mature-age draftee Bailey Fritsch, Alex Neal-Bullen and James Harmes all showed they can be regular contributors. Fritsch will be one to watch for AFL Fantasy followers- costing only $210,000 and registering 3 goals and 6 marks in his 69 points.
Unfortunately for the Saints, their forward line is not showing the promising signs the Dees have, despite Paddy McCartin pulling off what is almost a career-best game (2 goals, 15 disposals, 3 contested marks). The transition from defence to attack is looking somewhat awkward, although the Saints faithful will be very pleased to see star midfielder David Armitage has returned from almost a season away with groin issues, with no ill effects. His 24 disposals and 8 clearances gives St Kilda some inside grunt they desperately need to ensure Jack Steven isn’t carrying the entire load.
While the Demons are short, the Wolf thinks they will definitely justify the quote, and with 7 of 9 JLT matches seeing margins over 20 points is keen to take the -12.5 line.
Best Bet: Melbourne -12.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: Wire to Wire MELBOURNE ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan / Jack Billings

Swans v Giants – Friday 7.40pm, Blacktown
Notable absentees
Swans: Sam Naismith, Dane Rampe, Callum Sinclair, Aliir Aliir
Giants: Harry Perryman, Will Setterfield, Zac Williams

The Giants and the Swans both made a big statements in Week 1 with 60 and 55 point wins respectively. Buddy was on fire for the Swans, kicking four goals, while Jake Lloyd thrived in a McVeigh-less defence, taking 9 marks and accumulating 26 disposals across half back- though it goes without saying that the young Lions didn’t present the greatest opposition. The Giants didn’t come up against anything particularly impressive either in their game against the Pies, but the midfield in particular shone- streets ahead of their Magpies counterparts. Special praise should be reserved for Dylan Shiel, who spent more time up forward but still racked up 29 disposals, 6 inside 50’s and 9 marks to go along with his two goals. With both clubs naming strong sides, this looks to be a very intriguing preseason game, and the usual Davis v Franklin battle will be one of the highlights of the match.
The Wolf is siding with the Giants on this one, with a couple of injuries for the Swans exposing some more inexperienced players that the Giants are well set up to take advantage of.
Best Bet: GWS WIN ($2.00)
Value Bet: Both Teams to Score 80 Points ($3.55)
First Goalscorer: Harry Himmelberg / Tom Papley

Magpies v Bulldogs – Saturday 1.05pm, Moe
Notable absentees
Magpies: Daniel Wells, Jamie Elliott, Alex Fasolo, Chris Mayne, Jordan De Goey, Levi Greenwood
Bulldogs: Dale Morris, Liam Picken, Mitch Wallis, Tom Boyd

There wasn’t a whole lot to like of the Pies performance in Week 2, with a disjointed forward line only managing 5 goals; but the Bulldogs certainly gave their fans a reason to believe again with a impressive 22 point win over the Hawks. Silky Doggies star Marcus Bontempelli spent most of the game up forward, and looked dangerous every time he went near it, while Jason Johannisen looks to have regained some of the electric form he displayed in their Premiership year. The make-up and cohesion of the Dogs forward line will be one of the main things to watch for in this game, and judging its on last week, it looks like a very comfortable victory.
Yes, there are some important Magpies inclusions (namely Adam Treloar, Jeremy Howe and Darcy Moore) but the Wolf is all over the Bulldogs in this one.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs WIN ($1.65)
Value Bet: Western Bulldogs 25+ ($2.90)
First Goalscorer: Will Hoskin-Elliott / Jack
Macrae

Power v Crows – Saturday 4.05pm, Alberton
Notable absentees
Power: Tom Rockliff, Matthew Broadbent, Sam Powell-Pepper, Jack Hombsch, Jake Neade, Jack Trengrove, Lindsay Thomas
Crows: Taylor Walker, Brodie Smith, Brad Crouch, Andy Otten

It’s a preseason showdown- which is a shame because it certainly rubs off some of the aura of what is always a massive week. Nonetheless, this match is shaping up as one of the toughest of the round to predict, in front of what is sure to be a raucous Alberton crowd. Bryce Gibbs slotted seamlessly into his new club’s midfield in Week 1; with 28 disposals, 7 clearances and an impressive goal from the pocket, and his partner-in-crime Matt Crouch notched a lazy 36 touches. How the Port midfielders contain those two will have a massive say on the outcome of the game.
From a Port perspective, how the side continues to build their connections and gel as an outfit is the main motivation, and if it is anything like last week, they will get beaten by a Crows side that looks to have picked off where it left last year….well, before the Grand Final.
Best Bet: Adelaide 1-39 ($2.30)
First Goalscorer: Chad Wingard / Eddie Betts

Hawks v Blues – Saturday 7.05pm, Launceston
Notable absentees
Hawks: Liam Shiels, Cyril Rioli
Blues: Sam Docherty, Jarrod Garlett, Sam Kerridge

On paper, this may look like a lopsided match-up skewed towards the Hawks, but the Wolf doesn’t think it is that simple. He was keen on the Blues to upset the Saints last week and they duly delivered with a strong performance, highlighted by the returning Patrick Cripps; who took 2 very strong contested marks, accumulated 20 disposals and kicked two goals in a sparkling performance. Clearly, the Blues are a young side in a development phase, but quite frankly the Hawks are not in flag contention anymore themselves, either. If the young Blues defenders can keep potent Hawks forward line in check down in Launie, they will certainly make the game competitive.
Hawks should get the chocolates, but the Wolf wants to side with the outsiders on the spread for this one.
Best Bet: Carlton +14.5 ($1.90)
First Goalscorer: Ryan Schoenmakers ($14) / Paddy Dow ($26)

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