AFL Grand Final Prop Sheet
The Wolf has found a heap of value with his prop bets for the biggest game of the year.
Sydney HT/FT Double ($1.90)
Sydney Line -10.5 ($1.93)
Sydney Margin 1-39 ($2.05)
We’ve seen the Swans blow Adelaide and Geelong away early in the last two weeks, to take commanding quarter time leads. With more grand final experience than the Dogs they should settle early, hit the lead and not relinquish it. If nerves do get the best of the Dogs on the day, the Swans should be good things to cover the line, but the defensive patterns of the Dogs will make it hard for them to win by a big margin.
Sydney -10.5 & Under 166.5 ($3.90)
Get the Gap 2 Sydney +9.5 & Bulldogs +30.5 ($2.00)
Sydney 1-24 ($3.20)
A 90-70 or 80-60 scoreline is very much on the cards, particularly if there are a few showers around, and kicking for goal can be tricky on grand final day which can also keep scores down. Think of Hawthorn defeating Fremantle in 2013 – 11.11.77 v 8.14.62. We can bank on Sydney’s experience and class to get the job done, but also the Bulldogs defensive prowess to keep it low scoring and tight. Sydney winning by 11-24 gets us all the chocolates here.
1st Quarter Straight – Sydney ($1.68)
First Team to Kick 3 Goals – Sydney ($1.77)
The Swans kicked seven goals in each of their first terms against Geelong and Adelaide, and have averaged over five goals per first quarter in their last five matches. The Dogs have averaged three goals per first term in their last five. Given we expect Sydney to settle better early, let’s bank some money in the first 30 minutes.
3rd Quarter Margin – Western Bulldogs 9-16 ($6.30)
Sydney have lost all three third terms in this finals series, by 19, 13 and 13 points, to be -45. The Bulldogs are at +29 after winning two of their three third quarters. If Sydney does control the game early, we can expect the Dogs to throw everything at them after the break, and claw their way back into the game.
Scorecast – Lance Franklin to Kick 3 or More Goals and Sydney to Win Match ($2.25)
Franklin has kicked 25 goals in his last six matches against the Dogs, never dropping below 3 goals per game in this time, and his last four matches against them have seen returns of 5, 3, 6 and 5. While most sides don’t have an obvious match-up for Buddy, the Dogs have particularly struggled.