|Adelaide v Richmond
Saturday 3:00pm at MCG
|Best: Richmond +6.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Dustin Martin Norm Smith Medal ($5.00)
The 2017 AFL Grand Final shapes as an absolute classic with one of the two longest Grand Final droughts in the league to end with either minor premiers Adelaide or fairytale team Richmond set to lift the trophy.
Adelaide advanced to their first Grand Final in nearly 20 seasons with a 61-point shellacking of Geelong. The Crows finished the season as minor premiers with a 15-6-1 record on the back of the best attack in the AFL. They ranked fourth in defence. They annihilated GWS in the opening week of the finals to earn a home preliminary final before whacking the Cats. Adelaide have lost just two of their last 11 games. The Crows have been kept to 84 or fewer in their last four.
Richmond are into their first Grand Final since 1982 after a stunning 36-point win over GWS at the MCG in front of nearly 100,000 rabid Tiger fans. The Tigers have now won eight of their last nine and enter the decider riding a bigger wave of momentum. They ranked third defensively in 2017 but a poor eighth in scoring. Richmond have kept opponents to 67 or fewer in six of their last eight matches. The Tigers have hit 91 or more in six of their last seven meetings. The Tigers have won six straight at the MCG, all by three goals or more.
Stats That Matter
– Adelaide have won and covered three straight against Richmond.
– The Crows have posted scores of 128 and 140 in their last two against the Tigers.
– Richmond have covered 12 of their last 14 at the MCG.
– The Crows have covered just 3 of their last 9 at the MCG.
– The under has hit in 9 of the Tigers’ last 12 at the MCG.
– The over is 11-6 in Adelaide games at the MCG since 2012.
– Richmond have covered 11 of their last 15 games as an outsider at the MCG.
– The under has hit in 11 straight when the Tigers have been underdogs at the MCG.
– Richmond are 25-15 under in day matches at the MCG since 2012.
– Adelaide are 41-23 over interstate since 2012.
– The Crows have covered just three of their last eight as an interstate favourite.
– Outsiders have covered 57% of finals since 2012.
2017 Line: Adelaide 16-8, Richmond 18-6
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 10-14, Richmond 8-16
What To Expect
It is impossible to go past the Tigers here. Their momentum seems irresistible. They have been a brilliant defensive side all year but have made their attacking bones over the back end of the season. They get a huge advantage playing at the MCG, their home ground, with every neutral cheering on the Tigers. Adelaide have looked a little shaky on the road lately and the Tigers continue to cover at the MCG. It’s the year of the Tiger.
How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 8
Richmond +6.5 ($1.91)
Dusty has been a class above all year. He will win the Brownlow on Monday and should make it the double five days later.
Dustin Martin Norm Smith Medal ($5.00)
The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Grand Final
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