AFL Finals Preview: Giants v Eagles

AFL betting
GWS v West Coast
Saturday 7:25pm at Spotless Stadium
Best: West Coast +16.5 ($1.91)
Value: Stephen Coniglio 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.10)

Greater Western Sydney’s title hopes are in disarray as they look to bounce back against a gutsy West Coast team who pulled off a miraculous extra-time win over Port Adelaide.

Form
GWS finished fourth on the ladder with a 14-6-2 record but suffered a 36-point loss to minor premiers Adelaide. The Giants had won four straight before a last round 44-point loss away to Geelong before their bad loss to Adelaide. The Giants finished the season as the fifth best defensive team and the sixth ranked scoring team. GWS are 6-5-1 v Top 8 teams this year.

West Coast defeated minor premiers Adelaide in the last round of the season and parlayed that into an extra-time win away to Port Adelaide in their elimination final. Those two wins are their first back-to-back wins since Round 8. The Eagles have topped 100 points have conceded fewer than 83 points in six of their last eight. West Coast have won just two of their last seven away from Subiaco. West Coast are 5-6 v Top 8 teams.

Stats That Matter

– West Coast are 5-2 al-time v GWS though the Giants won both meetings this year by 8 and 21.
– The Eagles have covered 5 of their last 6 v the Giants.
– The over has hit in 5 of the 7 all-time Giants-Eagles games.
– Outsiders have covered 58% of finals since 2012.
– West Coast are 2-4 ATS in finals since 2012.
– GWS have covered 1 of 2 finals.
– Interstate outsiders of more than two goals cover at 58% in finals since 2012.
– The Eagles are 13-5 ATS as an interstate underdog of more than two goals, 9-2 ATS after conceding 80 or fewer.
– West Coast are 13-3 under interstate at night.
– GWS are 4-1 under at night at Spotless.
– GWS have failed to cover their last six as a favourite at Spotless.

Betting Data
2017 Line: GWS 8-15, West Coast 11-12
2017 Over-Under: GWS 11-12, West Coast 9-14

What To Expect
Get ready to unload because both the West Coast plus and under in this game are five-chip plays. The Eagles have a great interstate record as a big outsider and are riding a nice fortnight of momentum while GWS have been all over the shop. The Giants have been unbackable as a favourite at Spotless this season. There are some huge under angles here with both teams big under at night interstate and at Spotless respectively. Unload on West Coast plus and under.

How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 6

Recommended Bet
West Coast +16.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Stephen Coniglio hasn’t hit 110 fantasy points since returning from injury but has at least 28 touches in his last two against West Coast, a team he typically performs well against.

Recommended Bet
Stephen Coniglio 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.10)

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