AFL Finals Preview: Cats v Swans

AFL betting

The second week of the finals opens up with an absolute corker as Geelong looks to bounce back against a Sydney team riding an irresistible wave.


Geelong finished the season second on the ladder with a 15-6-1 record. Geelong were comprehensively defeated by Richmond in the opening week of the finals, losing 91-40. It was the Cats’ first sub-50 score since Round 1, 2011. The Cats have lost just four of their last 15 games. Geelong have conceded 70 or fewer in four of their last six. The Cats are 5-4-1 against Top 8 teams this year.

Sydney enter the finals with more momentum than any other team despite finishing sixth on the ladder with a 14-8 record. They decimated Essendon by 121-56 in the first week of the finals. The Swans won 15 of their last 17 games with their only two losses coming against nemesis Hawthorn. The Swans finished the season as the best defensive team in the AFL and have not conceded more than 85 points in their last 17.

Stats That Matter

– Sydney have won 5 of their last 6 against Geelong, including three straight in Victoria by 36-plus.
– Three of the last four Cats-Swans games have gone under.
– Geelong are 2-6 with a 1-7 ATS record in finals since 2012.
– Sydney are 9-6 with a 9-6 ATS record in finals since 2012.
– Outsiders have covered 58% of finals since 2012.
– Interstate favourites are 1-4 ATS in finals since 2012.
– Geelong are 13-22 ATS at the MCG since 2012, covering just 1 of their last 11.
– The Cats are 22-13 under at the MCG.
– Sydney are 25-17 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2012, covering 4 of their last 5.
– The over is 7-2 in the last nine when Sydney have been favoured interstate by more than two goals.
– Geelong have covered 8 of their last 10 as an underdog.
– The Cats are 5-8 ATS as an underdog of two or more goals.
– Geelong have covered just 1 of 4 after scoring 60 or fewer.
– Sydney have covered 8 of their last 11 after scoring 120-plus.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Geelong 11-12, Sydney 14-9
2017 Over-Under: Geelong 10-13, Sydney 10-13

What To Expect
All instincts suggest Geelong are a bet here but delving a little deeper it is apparent that Sydney have to be bet hard. The Cats really haven’t stacked up this year against the better teams in the competition and their recent finals record has been abhorrent. Sydney have smacked the Cats the last few meetings and are very good off a big attacking performance and as an interstate favourite. The Cats have an awful betting record at the MCG. Sydney are a side on a mission and it will take a special performance to beat them – a performance that the Cats don’t have in them.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 29

Recommended Bet
Sydney -17.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Buddy has booted 21 goals in his last four games and has four-goal hauls in three of his last four.

Recommended Bet
Lance Franklin 4+ Goals ($1.85)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Finals Week 2

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