Everyone loves a player prop and William Hill have put up a stack for the AFL finals series including most disposals and most goals. The Wolf takes a closer look and also gives us his prediction for the Gary Ayres Medal.
|Finals Series Specials||Recommended Bets|
|Most Dsiposals||Luke Parker ($15.00)
Daniel Hanenbery ($15.00)
Stephen Coniglio ($15.00)
|Most Goals||Best: Lance Franklin ($3.50)
Value: Harry Taylor ($41)
|Gary Ayres Medal||Best: Patrick Dangerfield ($5.00)
Value: Matt Crouch ($15.00)
The amount of matches played will have a huge bearing on the outcome of this market. As a result The Wolf really likes the look of a couple of Swans players. The Swans are a heavy favourite in Week 1 and would also start favourite in a potential Week 2 clash against either the Cats or Tigers. Then in the prelim they would face either Adelaide, who they beat in Round 22, or GWS in what would virtually be a sea of red. Kennedy led the way in terms of disposals for the Swans with 28.6 but The Wolf really likes the value about for both Luke Parker and Hannebery.
In terms of the top 4 sides The Wolf has singled out Stephen Coniglio. GWS face a tough encounter in Adelaide in Week 1 and with the Crows winning 7 of their 8 meetings it is hard to see the Giants grabbing the cash. A loss would see them start firm favourites in week 2 against either the Power or Eagles. We could see him log the maximum amount of 4 matches as a result which is great news for Coniglio who can rack up the disposals like no other.
By choosing three men at $15 we are getting averaged odds of $5. That is huge value according to Wolfy.
As mentioned The Wolf expect the Swans to play at least 3 matches in the finals and it comes as no surprise to see Buddy installed as the firm favourite in this market. He booted 10 goals in the final round of the season to claim the Coleman Medal and has been unstoppable! Buddy has been the ultimate team-mate with his work off the ball and his ability to turn provider but after falling short last year The Wolf expects Longmire to give him the green light and go for goal!
One man Wolfy says to steer clear of is the Eagles Josh Kennedy. Scoring at night in Adelaide is extremely tough and as big outsiders The Wolf isn’t expecting much from him. Likely to bow out in week 1 you want to be investing your money elsewhere.
There is definitely value about for the Cats Harry Taylor. The last time the Cats played the Tigers he had 4 goals and more importantly he dominated the league’s best defender and All-Australian captain Alex Rance. They are close to a coin flip in week 1 and defeat will only help. A loss would increase his potential games to 4 while a win would see the Cats all 3 potential games at the MCG.
Gary Ayres Medal
Josh Kennedy won the inaugural Gary Ayres Medal last year and the interest in the award has sky rocketed. The 5,4,3,2,1 scoring system is exciting to say the least and we will regularly see players from losing teams poll well. Patrick Dangerfield is the obvious choice and he will have a point to prove following his Brownlow Medal disappointment. As is the case with the Brownlow midfielder dominate the market and The Wolf likes one man in particular.
The Wolf will be having something on Crow Matt Crouch. His team-mate Rory Sloane should not be half the price as it is he who is the one that gets consistently tagged in big games. It will leave Crouch open and available to carry the bulk of the workload which includes racking up disposal after disposal. Sloane is still recovering from appendicitis and lets not forget that Crouch averaged 33 disposals per game this year – second to only Tom Mitchell who is already on Mad Monday with the Hawks.
Dangerfield the one to beat with Crouch the value.
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