AFL Finals Preview: Crows v Giants

Adelaide v GWS
Thursday 7:50pm at Adelaide Oval
Best: GWS +13.5 ($1.90)
Prop: Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals ($2.05)

The 2017 finals series kicks with minor premiers Adelaide hosting Greater Western Sydney in a mouth-watering matchup between the two premiership favourites.

Form
Adelaide finished the season on top of the table with a 15-6-1 record despite dropping their last two games of the season at home to Sydney and away to West Coast. The Crows were held to 80 or fewer in those two matches and conceded 100 against the Eagles, just the fourth time all year they had conceded 100-plus. Adelaide were the top attacking team in the AFL this year.

GWS finished fourth on the ladder with a 14-6-2 record. The Giants had won four straight before a last round 44-point loss away to Geelong. GWS conceded 100-plus for just the fourth time all year in the last round. The Giants finished the season as the fifth best defensive team and the sixth ranked scoring team.

Stats That Matter

– Adelaide have won 7 of the 8 all-time meetings with GWS.
– Adelaide have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Giants.
– The over has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
– Adelaide are 31-17 ATS at the Adelaide Oval, including a 6-3 ATS record when favoured by fewer than four goals.
– The under is 16-10 when Adelaide play at home at night.
– GWS have covered 11 of their last 15 as an interstate outsider.
– Adelaide have covered just 1 of their last 4 finals.
– The last four Adelaide finals have gone over.
– The Crows are 26-14 ATS after conceding 100 points.
– Adelaide are 20-10 under after scoring 80 or fewer.
– GWS are 32-17 ATS after being held to 70 or fewer.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Adelaide 14-8, GWS 8-14
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 9-13, GWS 11-11

What To Expect
Great first final but not a huge betting game. The best play is the Giants though. They have covered 11 of their last 15 as an interstate outsider and have covered 32 of 49 after being held to 70 or fewer. The Giants have probably underachieved a little this year but seem primed at the right time of year.

How It’s Shaping Up
GWS by 1

Recommended Bet
GWS +13.5 ($1.90)

Player Markets
Jeremy Cameron has bagged three or more goals in eight of 18 games this year including four the last time he played Adelaide and three in his final hitout before the finals.

Recommended Bet
Jeremy Cameron 3+ Goals ($2.05)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Finals Week 1

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