DT Talk: AFL Preview Finals Wk 1

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

The DT Talk boys give us a full run down of their best player props for the final round of the regular season. Calvin, Warnie and Roy have dissected the match-ups to give us their value picks of the week.

Finals Wk 1
(Previews)
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
WEST COAST v BULLDOGS

(Thursday 20:10)

 

Tips by: Calvin

Kicking off the AFL Finals series are the Eagles and Dogs tonight from Domain Stadium. The league’s leading tackler Matt Priddis, will be tough to stop at $3 and even clocked up 12 against the Dogs when they met in round 11. For value, Josh Dunkley ($6.50) is worth a look in the same market after claiming 10, 8 and 13 tackles in his last three games.

Lachie Hunter found the pill 38 times in their round 11 clash and you can double your money on him tonight if he can crack the magical 30+ mark again.

In the AFL Fantasy market, it’s tough to look past Priddis ($4.50) once again. He had 124pts in the final round of the year and even had 114 back in round 11.

But if it’s value you are after then why not take a punt of Elliot Yeo? Boy can he be frustrating, but at home he plays like a different man. To have 17+ disposals he’s paying $1.88. However, to win the Group B market, he is paying a whooping $26. Yes, this is very unlikely to happen, but hey… he’s at home and can be huge on his day.

GEELONG v HAWTHORN

(Friday 19:50)

 

Tips by: Warnie

The clash of week one is here and what a game it will be.

With Scott Selwood set to tag Sam Mitchell and Liam Shiels set to target Patrick Dangerfield, my attention has gone to Jordan Lewis ($5.75) to have the most disposals. He has had 30 and 35 touches in his last two games against the Cats and has been in hot form in recent weeks.

Luke Hodge is a finals expert. In the AFL Fantasy market he is paying $8 to lead all scorers and last year in the 2015 finals series, he averaged 119pts from his four games. Hodgey comes right at the pointy end of the year and hasn’t scored under 90 in his last four games leading into the finals. He’s set for another big one.

Even though he might cop some attention, look out for Dangerfield to have a truckload of handballs to win this market paying $4. He had a season high 25 on the Hawks in round 1 and hasn’t gone under 12 since round 9.

SYDNEY v GWS

(Saturday 15:20)

 

Tips by: Roy

The third final from ANZ Stadium is a game that promises so much. Heath Shaw is usually a guy who breaks promises and our high expectations, but against the Swans he already has some handy runs on the board. He’s paying $2.50 to hold the most marks and has already taken 10 and 9 against them this year. Alex Rance pulled down 9 against the Swans in round 23 and if they are given up marks to defenders, Heath will Shawly be cashing in. Boom Tish!

Earlier this year, GWS tagged Josh Kennedy. That day he had just 25 touches (16 handballs). The guy that caught my eye in the last two rounds was my old mate Tom Mitchell with 19 and 20 handballs. At $4, he’s a good chance, but has burnt me many times this year.

It’s no secret that the Swans midfielders give up plenty of the ball to their opposition. In round 23, even though the Tigers lost by nearly 100pts, Dusty Martin still racked up 33 touches. Enter Stephen Coniglio. This man can find the pill and between rounds 13 and 21 he averaged 31 touches a game. At $8, it’s too good to pass up on.

ADELAIDE v KANGAROOS

(Saturday 19:40)

 

Tips by: Calvin

After missing a week due to suspension, expect Rory Sloane to be back to his very ‘angry’ best this week. He nailed the Roos with 13 tackles when they met earlier this year and at $4.25, he’s fresh and ready to make amends.

Tex Walker pulled down 10 marks against the Kangaroos in round 1 and even Jonno Patten took 9 against the Roos in round 23. Tex is paying $5 and should be leading from the front and pushing up the ground all night long.

Finally, finish your weekend with an easy triple your money bet with Matt Crouch. Matt who you ask?

Crouch has found the ball 30+ times in four of his last six games and even had 32 on the Roos earlier this year. He’ll get the job done here and finish your weekend of finals footy on a high.

If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.

AFL betting stats

Discuss