AFLW Tips – Round 3

Round 2 of the AFLW may have been soured by serious injuries to two stars of the competition, in Bri Davey and Izzy Huntington, but at least the Wolf found plenty of value, going 3 from 4 and getting some healthy returns for followers. The match of the round looks to be the Magpies hosting the Giants, where 2017 ‘Pies Players Player winner, Alicia Eva, will return to the Holden Centre to take on her old side. With both sides sitting at 0-2, and their seasons already on life support, a loss here would snuff out any Finals ambitions- so it will be a game that could throw up plenty of value either way.
The Saturday night game at Ikon Park could also be a tight contest, with the Blues hoping to bounce back strongly from the disappointment of losing their skipper, Brianna Davey, for the season while the Giants will be keen to convert their improved performances into victories.

The Wolf had a solid Round 2, and is confident Round 3 will result in some good gains for followers- see the suggested bets and match previews below.

MULTI (Head to Head): Bulldogs ($1.46), Giants ($1.96), Demons ($1.46), Lions ($2.13)$8

Crows v Bulldogs – Saturday 2.05pm
Round 3 kicks off with last years premiers, the Crows, hosting a resurgent Doggies side at Norwood Oval on Saturday afternoon. With star players Erin Phillips and Courtney Cramey missing, the Crows have looked well off the pace- and it has been the absence of Cramey that has hurt them most of all as their defence struggles to deal with the increased level of inside 50’s. In their clash last season, the Bulldogs were only beaten by their own horrendous inaccuracy, kicking a woeful 2.11 in perfect conditions as Sarah Perkins kicked 2 goals to lead her side to victory in Footscray. Despite being away, and even with the inclusion of Erin Phillips (Cramey will miss again), the Wolf is all over the Bulldogs at the Head to Head price. Losing Izzy Huntington is a blow, but with the midfield controlling possession so well, there will be plenty of contributors ready to step up, and Katie Brennan will relish a defence lacking in a quality key back.
Given the superior clearance work of the Dogs, and the shaky defence of the Crows, the Wolf also likes the visitors to score first ($1.85)– something they have done on both occasions this season, while Adelaide have conceded first points in both their games. Erin Phillips will be playing, but Brennan, Kearney, Blackburn and co. won’t mind too much- they will drag their side over the line and leave the defending premiers languishing with a 0-3 record.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs WIN ($1.74)
Value Bet: First Scoring Play- Western Bulldogs GOAL ($3.40)
Player Prop: Katie Brennan 2+ goals ($1.60)

Blues v Lions – Saturday 7.40pm
The Blues will take on the Lions in front of a bumper Saturday night crowd at Ikon Park, fresh off the huge disappointment of losing their skipper, and best player, Bri Davey for the season. While a number of Blues players have spoken publicly about their fierce desire to make their much-loved captain proud, the loss of Davey is a massive blow to playing ranks that were already severely lacking in genuine A-grade midfielders. This leaves the door open for a confident Lions outfit to pounce away from home, paying a juicy $2.13. Jess Wuetschner and Sabrina Frederick-Traub have been enormous up forward, while Emily Bates, Emma Zielke and Ally Anderson have been tremendous in the engine room- and this is where the Lions can win it, given they are well-set up down back to contain the potent Blues forward line. All the Lions need to do is kick straighter than the 7.13 they have currently accumulated, and they will have too much grunt and poise for the wounded Blues.
If you’re an exotic player, you’d be a fool not to stick in Tayla Harris into any bets you fancy as she faces her old side after a few preseason barbs were traded in the media, and while less high profile, Bella Ayre will make her Lions debut against her old club, and the young forward is someone with plenty of potential.
Best Bet: Brisbane Lions WIN ($2.13)
Value Bet: HT/FT Double- Blues/Lions ($7.00)
Prop Bet: First Goal Scorer- Tayla Harris ($TBC)

Magpies v Giants – Sunday 4.35pm
The Wolf wanted no part of the Pies in the preseason, and the wheels have continued to fall off at Australia’s most famous AFL club. With a coaching panel bereft of effective tactical ideas and a midfield group lacking any player with genuine match-winning ability, the Pies look to be a touch short at the $1.77 quote, even accounting for the fact they are at home for the first time this season. The Giants have come on in leaps and bounds this season, after several shrewd trading and draft moves- though co-captain Emma Swanson has brushed off talk of progress as success- making it perfectly clear the women in orange and charcoal are here to win, not develop.
Key defender Stacey Livingstone has finally succumbed to a shoulder injury after bravely continuing through the pain, which is good news for big Giants forwards Pheobe McWilliams and Jacinda Barclay, although veteran defender Meg Hutchins will likely return after being mysteriously left out for the first two rounds. The Wolf is keen on the Giants proving how much of a rabble the supposed glamour club is, but thinks they may come out fired out for the opening quarter in front of their home fans.
Best Bet: GWS Giants WIN ($2.02)

Value Bet: Quarter by Quarter Leaders- Pies-Lions-Lions-Lions ($12)
Prop Bet: Pheobe McWilliams 2+ goals ($TBC)

Dockers v Demons – Sunday 6.35pm
A Dockers side full of confidence after a strong win over Collingwood last round faces a dominant Demons line-up that, worryingly for the competition, is still yet to fully hit their straps. Key forward Alyssa Mifsud returned last round, and despite a few cobwebs looked dangerous alongside Tegan Cunningham and Aleisha Newman- who both kicked two goals but it is the much publicised A-grade midfield that makes this Dees team so dangerous. Daisy Pearce, Karen Paxman, Elise O’Dea and Mel Hickey are all capable of 20+ disposals per game with high quality ball-use, while Lily Mithen, Ashleigh Guest and Richelle Cranston are very strong depth players that are all having strong seasons. The Wolf wants to go chips in on the Demons ($1.46) in this one, who have far too much firepower and experience for the Dockers. The home side, led by Dana Hooker and Kara Donnellan, will put up a gallant first half but fade in the second, giving the Dees a 3-0 start to the season and back to back 25+ point wins.      
Best Bet: Melbourne Demons -10.5 ($1.90) 

Value Bet: Melbourne 25+ ($4.00)
Prop Bet: Daisy Pearce 25+ disposals ($TBC)

Discuss