AFLW Tips – Round 2

AFLW kicked off last weekend, and there was plenty to talk about; from the low-scoring, low-skill game on Friday night to the eye-catching performance of Bulldogs forward, Katie Brennan, on Sunday afternoon. The Total Points markets were the toughest to get right, with the Overs and Unders split evenly between the four games. The Wolf thinks Round Two has plenty of value in it, with all four games close enough to go either way. The highlight for the round will be on Saturday afternoon, as last years runners up, Brisbane, take on the Bulldogs- with the Doggies $2.30 outsiders despite easing past the Dockers by 26 points last round.

Giants v Blues – Friday 7.05pm
Premiership fancies in the preseason, the Blues got their 2018 campaign off to a solid start after defeating the Pies by 8 points, while the Giants fell six points short against the Demons. The Wolf warned of the Blues deficiencies in the Season Preview, and their first game only exacerbated the worry surrounding their lack of speed and midfield class. The fact they have dropped their inaugural skipper and first ever midfield selection, Lauren Arnell, highlights their midfield woes and this bodes well for a potent and well balanced Giants midfield. After matching Melbourne for three quarters last week, the Wolf thinks the Giants are fantastic value at home, especially with their second highest ranked midfielder of last year, Emma Swanson, returning. For a bit of value, Rebecca Beeson, fresh off a NAB Rising Star nomination, is a huge price for First Goalscorer, and the Wolf thinks she can expose Carlton’s flaws in containing players with elite quickness.
Best Bet: GWS WIN ($2.40)
Value Bet: First Goal Scorer- Rebecca Beeson ($21)

Demons v Crows – Saturday 5.05pm
Last years Premiers, the Crows, couldn’t have got off to a worse start after being comprehensively outplayed by the Lions, while the experienced Demons side held their nerve against a gallant Giants side to win by a solitary goal. Despite being heavy favourites pre-game, the late withdrawals of Erin Phillips and Courtney Cramey (the two highest ranking players in last year’s Grand Final) hit the Crows hard, and they were absolutely dominated by a hungrier, and cleaner, Lions midfield. Given the influence Sabrina Frederick-Traub (7 contested marks) had on that game, the inclusion of fellow power forward, Alyssa Mifsud, is great news for the Dees, who are a lock at the price. Daisy Pearce, Karen Paxman, Elise O’Dea and Mel Hickey will ran rampant on the huge expanses of Casey Fields, and the Wolf thinks this could be a bloodbath if the rain stays away.
Best Bet: Demons WIN ($1.50)
Value Bet: Demons 25+ ($4.00)

Dockers v Magpies – Saturday 7.10pm
The brand-new Optus Stadium in Perth will be the venue for this clash, with over 50,000 tickets sold for the first AFL game at the venue. The Dockers and Pies are both coming off disappointing first-round losses following sub-par performances in 2017, and none of their flaws appear to have been adequately addressed- which doesn’t augur well for a clash full of skill or points. While the Pies racked up impressive looking stats against Carlton, they lacked penetration through the engine room, and the Wolf thinks this is where the Dockers can capitalise. Dockers captain Kara Donnellan, Dana Hooker and Ebony Antonio are all elite players who proved direct ball-use and good defensive pressure and, buoyed by the home crowd, can get their side home.
Best Bet: 
Total Points UNDER ($1.87)
Value Bet: Dockers 1-24 ($2.55)

Lions v Bulldogs – Sunday 4.35pm
The Lions had the footy world talking with their “Shoosh” celebration last week after they reversed last years Grand Final result, and it was clear how much they revel in proving the doubters wrong, with Frederick-Traub (10 marks) and Jess Wuetschner (4 marks, 2 goals) looking dangerous up forward. They will be taking on a resurgent Bulldogs side who will be heartened by their start to the year after finishing a disappointing sixth in 2017. 18 year old draftees Izzy Huntington and Monique Conti both looked like seasoned veterans, while Katie Brennan returned to AFLW with a bang, kicking 3 goals and taking 6 marks. The midfield battle in this game will be something to behold, with Lions Emma Zielke, Emily Bates, Jamie Stanton and Kaitlyn Ashmore coming up against the phenomenal engine room of Ellie Blackburn, Emma Kearney, Monique Conti and, occasionally, Brennan- who will be taking on many former teammates from her home state.  
The Wolf thinks this game is a very tough one to predict, and the momentum will go back and forth with both sides evenly matched around the ground. Given the extra big-game experience in the elite ‘Dogs midfield, Wolfie is taking the value of the Dogs, despite being away from home. 
Best Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.80)

Value Bet: Bulldogs 1-24 ($3.00)

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