AFLW Tips – Round 5

It is starting to get towards the pointy end of the AFLW season, and with every team a mathematical chance of making the Grand Final, there is plenty to play for. The Round is headlined by a cracking Friday night clash, with 2017 runners up the Lions taking on flag fancies the Demons. The Wolf has picked out a couple of specials for Round 5- see tips and previews below.

MULTI- Either team under 15.5 (Dees v Lions)/GWS/Adelaide/Collingwood – $14

Demons v Lions – Friday 7.05pm, Casey Fields
One of the competition’s top 2 attacks meets the competition’s best defence in a cracking clash to start the round off. Mirroring that, all of the Demons games have hit the Overs, while all the Lions games have gone Unders! Thankfully for both fans and punters, the weather is looking clear- giving us a much better chance of finding a couple of winners in the battle of 2nd v 3rd. Their clash last year was a memorable one, with the Lions springing a huge upset in the opening round in horrid (and lightning affected) conditions at Casey Fields- announcing to the AFLW world that they weren’t here for the wooden spoon like many expected. The Dees struggled to contain contested marking duo Sabrina Frederick-Traub and Tayla Harris in that game- a trend that has continued this year, with the defence looking shaky aside from Meg Downie. The Wolf tipped the Dees to smash the Magpies last round as a response to a disappointing loss, but instead they were horrendously complacent, and were lucky not to lose by more 34 points. You’d think they would respond, but how are we to know now?! One thing the Wolf IS sure of is the class, determination and leadership of Daisy Pearce, who was well held by Brittany Bonnici last round, and registered only 9 disposals. Would be very surprised if she doesn’t get the 3 B&F votes in this one.
The Lions love being the outsiders, an attitude that has appeared to galvanise the playing group right from the start, and they are +48 ATS in the two games they have started outsiders, as opposed to -16 ATS as favourites. The Wolf isn’t sure if they’ll win, but he loves the way they defend and hunt as a pack, like any good wolf does- and you can be rest assured this game will go right down to the wire.
Best Bet: Triple Margin 15.5 ANY OTHER RESULT ($1.60)
Value Bet: HT/FT Double: BRISBANE/MELBOURNE ($6.00)
Player Prop: Daisy Pearce 20+ disposals

Dockers v Giants – Saturday 5.05pm, Fremantle Oval
It’s safe to say both these sides will have some very heavy legs after last week, in which the Dockers lost to the Lions in a drenched Brisbane that had seen over 100ml of rain while the Giants suffered a deflating draw at home in torrential rain against the Crows. The effect of this should not be underestimated, particularly given both sides will now be turning out under the searing Perth sun- which the Eagles and Power boys showed on the weekend can be very sapping. Keeping that in mind, the Wolf is liking the look of the Overs for this game, with the only unders for either side coming in very heavy rain. Dry conditions sees the sides +97 combined on the Overs, with inexperienced defences and thinner midfield rosters leading to more free flowing games- combine this with tired bodies, and this leads it raining points rather than water. Their clash last year was an open affair that yielded 86 points.
This game is probably the toughest to pick for the round, although the fact the Dockers are at home certainly does give them an edge. The Wolf is avoiding the H2H markets and sticking to Phoebe McWilliams kicking a couple against an undersized defence and keeping her Giants in the contest.
Best Bet: Total Points OVER ($1.87)
Other Bet: GWS +4.5 ($1.90)
Prop Bet: Phoebe McWilliams 2+ goals

Crows v Blues – Saturday 7.10pm, Norwood Oval
The 2017 premiers were left gutted after drawing with the Giants last round- making it close to impossible for them to appear in consecutive Grand Finals given their poor percentage. Gutted, however, couldn’t begin to describe how the Blues should be feeling, after they were spectacularly thumped by a Brennan-less Bulldogs outfit to the tune of 73 points. While the Blues were missing some players and had a few late withdrawals, the Bulldogs were missing a few of their best players too. Only a couple of Carlton players (namely Sarah Hosking, Maddison Gay, Lauren Arnell and Breann Moody) didn’t have their colours lowered, and their rudderless defence looks ripe for an Erin Phillips-induced slaughter. Without Brianna Davey, there is no genuine match-up down back for Phillips, although Shae Audley will likely pester her in the midfield. The Wolf thinks this leads to a big Crows victory at their spiritual home, fresh off the knowledge they have likely missed their chance to return to the Big Dance. 
Best Bet: Adelaide WIN ($1.45)
Value Bet: Wire to Wire ADELAIDE ($2.70)
Prop Bet: Erin Phillips 2+ goals

Magpies v Bulldogs – Sunday 2.35pm, Moe
Didn’t the Magpies make the Wolf eat his words last week! After 3 lacklustre rounds in which the coaching panel refused to budge from a negative and arrogant game-plan- even after the disappointment of last year, the Pies left the tactics in the sheds and went out and backed themselves. And boy, didn’t it work! Their intensity in both attack and defence was incredible, and the forward line of Christina Bernadi, Mo Hope and Sarah Darcy (with contributions from Jess Duffin, Caitlyn Edwards, Meg Hutchins and Chloe Molloy) made the Dees defence look like amateurs. Their match-up with a Doggies defence led by Hannah Scott is a mouthwatering prospect; but with both sides showing a propensity to attack from the backline and the Overs 6-2 between the two sides, the Wolf thinks this match will have a few goals in it.
If the B-grade Pies midfield can compete with the classy Doggies on-ballers; headlined by Emma Kearney and Ellie Blackburn, they can certainly give this game a shake- and the very least cover the generous 11.5 spread. The Wolf, after eating humble pie, is sniffing an upset in this one.     
Best Bet: Total Points OVER ($1.87)
Other Bet: Collingwood +11.5 ($1.90)

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