AFL Preview: Swans v Crows

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AFL Preview: Finals Week 2
Sydney v Adelaide
7.25pm AEST, Saturday, September 17
SCG, Sydney

Adelaide +11.5 ($1.93)
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2)
Scorecast – Eddie Betts to Kick 3 or More Goals and Adelaide to Win ($3.75)

Sydney and Adelaide played one of the games of the season back in Round 4. Will history repeat? 

Form
Sydney hit the finals off six wins in a row, some of them big (defeating Fremantle by 90, Port by 67, St Kilda by 70, Richmond by 113) and a couple of them small (beating Carlton by 6 points and North by 9). None of them were against high calibre sides, and this soft run may have led to a lack of hardness and intensity when they fell well short against GWS last weekend.

Adelaide put a Round 23 loss to West Coast at Adelaide Oval behind them with a strong performance against North in their elimination final, posting their third score of 140+ in the last six weeks. Prior to the Eagles loss, the Crows had won 12 of 13 games, kicking 100 points or more in 11 of them.

Key Match-ups
Lance Franklin v Daniel Talia

The best running key forward in the game, against one of the best key defenders. This year’s All-Australian centre-half forward and All-Australian centre-half back will duel, with the result being pivotal to the outcome of the match. Franklin’s has been held goalless three times this season, resulting in two Sydney losses and an ugly win against North.

Nick Smith v Eddie Betts

Eddie Betts has averaged 3.8 goals in Adelaide wins this season, and 1.3 goals per game in their losses, including four times being held to one or zero. He is coming off a six goal elimination final against North, similar to last year when he kicked five in the Crows elimination victory over the Bulldogs. He was held to 0 the next week as the Crows went down, so Nick Smith must use all of his guile and experience to keep the excitement machine quiet.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

DT Talk player props betting preview

The winner of the final game on Saturday night meets Geelong for their chance of premiership glory.

Dan Hannebery has been on fire over the last six weeks, averaging 35 disposals. At $3, he’s extremely hard to overlook in a very capable Sydney midfield.

After a sure thing? Then lock in Jake Lloyd ($2.75) in group B to find plenty of the pill. He is a beast across half back and is the king of finding uncontested ball. He has racked up 26, 31, 24 and 35 over the last month.  In AFL Fantasy you can also find Lloydy in group B. Pushed back with the peasants, he’s not getting the respect he deserves. After averaging 107 in his last five, he’s my bet of the round paying $7.

Three of Lance Franklin’s highest marking games of the year have come in the last four games. He has had 8 and 11 in his last two and at $6, I think he is certainly worth a look.

Finally, an oldie but a goodie. Scott Thompson in the tackle market is paying a very juicy $5. He’s had hauls of 8 and 9 in his last two and even nailed 10 on the Swans in round four.

Stats That Matter
The two teams have split their last ten matches 5-5, with six of these being won by the away side. Adelaide has defeated Sydney twice in three SCG games in this time. The Crows beat the Swans by 10 points in their meeting earlier this year, at Adelaide Oval.

Adelaide have played 11 matches against top eight sides this year, winning five at -16% POT and 64% ATS, with 55% of these matches going over the total match score. The Crows have one win from five interstate matches against top eight sides, at -42% POT and 60% ATS.

Sydney have won six from 11 against top eight sides, at break-even POT and 45% ATS, with 91% of these going under the total match points. They have won three from five at the SCG against these opponents, at -12% POT and 60% ATS.

The Swans have played six finals in Sydney since 2012, winning four. None of these were at the SCG.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Sydney 14-9, Adelaide 15-8
2016 Over/Under: Sydney 13-10, Adelaide 14-9

Final Thoughts
This final feels like it has come a week too early given that these two sides were in the top four for long periods on the season, and both spend significant time sitting in the top two.

Sydney have lost four finals in a row now with their last win coming in the 2014 preliminary final, which may be starting to have a mental impact on an outfit known for their resilience. Adelaide come in with a win confidence after recording a win over the Swans this season.

Since that Round 4 clash, both sides have improved defensively, while the Crows still maintain a potent attack. As GWS showed last week, if you can get the ball in quickly and isolate the Sydney defenders they can be beaten.

The loss of Kurt Tippett and Callum Mills will unsettle the Swans outfit, and question marks hover over how effective Josh Kennedy will be after his heavy head knock last week. The Crows come in fit and firing and have the game style and attack to trouble Sydney.

Adelaide has won 17 matches this season, and in 14 of those Eddie Betts has kicked three goals or more, including their last eight wins. Against Sydney earlier this year he kicked four goals, when the Crows were victorious. If you like Adelaide to win, you can add some value by taking the Scorecast involving him.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 11 points

Best Bet
Adelaide +11.5 ($1.93) 

Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2)

Scorecast – Eddie Betts to Kick 3 or More Goals and Adelaide to Win ($3.75)

If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.

AFL betting stats

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