AFL Preview: Finals Week 1
|Adelaide -32.5 ($1.91)
Total Game Score Over +177.5 ($1.90)
10 Goal Hiding – Adelaide Wins Match By 60 Points or More ($4.50)
The Crows will be hotly favoured against a cold Kangaroos.
Adelaide is coming in off their worst performance of the season when they couldn’t stand up to West Coast in the last round despite being at home, going down by 29 points. Prior to that, they had won four in a row, but all against bottom ten sides, beating Essendon by 82, Brisbane by 138, Fremantle by 72 and Port by 15.
North lost four in a row on their way into September, all against their fellow finalists. They lost by 14 points to the Bulldogs, 39 points to Hawthorn, 9 points to Sydney, and 37 points to GWS. In these losses, they averaged only 61 points per game.
Sam Jacobs v Todd Goldstein
Both of these ruckmen have been appointed the number one All-Australian ruckman in the league at some stage in their careers, but their recent form has fallen a long way from those standards. Jacobs was embarrassed in Round 23 by West Coast journeyman Jonathon Giles, while Goldstein has been a shadow of himself in the second half of this season due to carrying a leg injury.
If either can recapture their best and give their side first use at the stoppages plus be a presence around the ground, they can shape the game. Goldstein is the more natural goal-kicker and will be looking to push forward, but Jacobs can make him accountable the other way.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
After missing a week due to suspension, expect Rory Sloane to be back to his very ‘angry’ best this week. He nailed the Roos with 13 tackles when they met earlier this year and at $4.25, he’s fresh and ready to make amends.
Tex Walker pulled down 10 marks against the Kangaroos in round 1 and even Jonno Patten took 9 against the Roos in round 23. Tex is paying $5 and should be leading from the front and pushing up the ground all night long.
Finally, finish your weekend with an easy triple your money bet with Matt Crouch. Matt who you ask?
Crouch has found the ball 30+ times in four of his last six games and even had 32 on the Roos earlier this year. He’ll get the job done here and finish your weekend of finals footy on a high.
Stats That Matter
Adelaide has won five of the last seven matches between the sides, dating back to the start of 2013. The last six games have gone the way of the home side, with the Crows winning all three between these teams at Adelaide Oval.
Adelaide are +5% POT this season, and 64% ATS (ranked equal first in the league). The Crows have averaged 113 points per game in 2016. They are +15% POT at Adelaide Oval with 10 wins from 12 matches, and are 58% ATS at the venue.
North Melbourne are -13% POT in 2016, ranked 12th in the league. They are 50% ATS, with 64% of matches going under the total match points. North have won four of their eight interstate matches, at -33% POT and 50% ATS. They have lost their last three interstate matches, and four of their last five. The Roos have lost their last seven matches when starting $2 or greater.
It’s hard to see this one going anything but the way of the home side. Adelaide got a reality check in the last round after a soft draw, and received a lesson in finals intensity. Expect them to learn from it.
North have struggled for the best part of three months now, and in reality are not one of the best eight teams in the competition. Their early season form has long since dissipated, and they don’t have the class nor function to beat the top contenders.
Add in the unrest created by the Kangaroos off-field staff pensioning off veterans like Harvey, Petrie and Firrito, and the instability at North is not going to lead to finals wins.
Adelaide’s best is free-flowing attacking footy to the most potent forward-line in the AFL, matched with defensive soundness which keeps the ball trapped in their forward half. North won’t be able to match them, and can be expected to drop away late in the game once the result is a foregone conclusion.
How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 58 points
Adelaide -32.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Total Game Score Over +177.5 ($1.90)