AFL Finals Preview: Swans v Bombers

Sydney v Essendon
Saturday 4:20pm at SCG
Best: Sydney -27.5 ($1.90)
Prop: Lance Franklin 5+ Goals ($2.70)

Sydney go in the biggest favourites of Week 1 of the finals as they look to continue to ride their wave of momentum.

Form
Sydney enter the finals with more momentum than any other team despite finishing sixth on the ladder with a 14-8 record. The Swans won 14 of their final 16 games with their only two losses coming against nemesis Hawthorn. The Swans finished the season as the best defensive team in the AFL. The Swans have not conceded more than 85 points in their last 16.

Essendon finished seventh on the ladder with a 12-10 record. The Bombers won six of their last eight but none of those came against Top 8 opposition. Essendon are 2-5 against Top 8 opposition this year. The Bombers have topped 100 points in just one of their last five. Essendon are 2-4 interstate this year.

Stats That Matter

– Sydney have won seven straight against Essendon.
– Essendon have covered 3 of their last 4 against Sydney.
– The under has hit in 3 of the last 4 Swans-Bombers clashes.
– The Swans are 31-24 ATS at the SCG since 2012, covering 5 of their last 6.
– Sydney are 15-10 ATS when favoured at home by more than four goals.
– Sydney are 13-7 ATS at home after scoring 100 points.
– Essendon have covered just 5 of their last 15 interstate games but have covered their last three.
– The Bombers are 5-9 ATS interstate getting more than four goals.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Sydney 13-9, Essendon 11-11
2017 Over-Under: Sydney 10-12, Essendon 11-11

What To Expect
Sydney just have too much going for them to pass up on here with the big line looking a little small if anything. They have massive momentum, a huge home-field advantage and a significant class edge and they meet a Bombers team who have probably made the finals on the back of an easy fixture.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 54

Recommended Bet
Sydney -27.5 ($1.90)

Player Markets
Big Buddy booted 10 last week and had six against the Bombers when they met two times back.

Recommended Bet
Lance Franklin 5+ Goals ($2.70)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Finals Week 1

More Racing and Sports Tips

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NRL Finals Week 1
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