|Geelong v Richmond
Friday 7:50pm at MCG
|Best: Under 166.5 ($1.90)
Prop: Bachar Houli 25+ Disposals ($1.60)
A chance to advance to the preliminary final awaits both a familiar Geelong and a totally unaccustomed Richmond in this super first final.
Geelong finished the season second the ladder with a 15-6-1 record. The Cats roll into the finals with plenty of momentum having won their last three games, two against fellow Top 4 teams Richmond and GWS. The Cats have lost just three of their last 14 games. Geelong have conceded 70 or fewer in four of their last five.
Richmond finished the year in third position – their highest ladder finish since 1995 and just their third Top 4 finish since 1982 – with a 15-7 record. They ranked as the third best defensive side of the season. The Tigers won their last two and eight of their last 10 games. Richmond enter the finals on the back of two of their three best attacking performances of the year.
Stats That Matter
– Geelong have won 13 straight against Richmond and 19 of the last 20.
– The last four Cats-Tigers games have all been decided by 14 points or fewer.
– Richmond’s last win over Geelong at the MCG was in 1999.
– Five of the last six Cats-Tigers clashes have gone under the total.
– Geelong are 13-21 ATS at the MCG since 2012, covering just 1 of their last 10.
– The Cats are 21-13 under at the MCG.
– The Tigers are 48-31 under at the MCG.
– Richmond have gone under in eight straight at the MCG as an underdog.
– Richmond are 15-11 ATS as an underdog at the MCG.
– Geelong are 4-14 ATS with a 12-6 under record as a favourite at the MCG.
– The Tigers are 9-6 ATS with an 11-4 under record after posting 120-plus.
2017 Line: Geelong 11-11, Richmond 16-6
2017 Over-Under: Geelong 10-12, Richmond 7-15
What To Expect
Can smell an upset here with most of the angles plumping for the Tigers. While betting suggests it would be only a minor upset, it would be a historic victory. The top play though is the under. Richmond are a huge under team, particularly at the MCG, while the Cats are also an under team at the MCG, particularly as a favourite. These two have a history of low-scorers and with so much on the line another stout defensive battle is forecast.
How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 7
Under 166.5 ($1.90)
Bachar Houli has topped 25 touches in eight of his last 10. Will be doing so again here.
Bachar Houli 25+ Disposals ($1.60)
The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Finals Week 1
More Racing and Sports Tips
Have you ever wanted to bet on a market that just isn’t available anywhere? If so, your life is about to change with William Hill’s BuildABet. Complete the form, requesting the market you want and our traders will price the market up for you! We will be in touch once the request is live on our site.