AFL 2018: Brownlow Medal Predictor Update

AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal Predictor- Round 7 update

Wolfie loves a good spreadsheet, and now we are getting into the season it is time for a Brownlow Medal update. With 6 votes allocated each game, including .5 (if required) so as to ensure the polling is as consistent as possible (and resistant to bias)- this Predictor model allows for higher value selections closer to the event, when markets like Groups, Head to Heads and ‘To Poll A Vote In X Round’ are open. Multiple sources, including AFLCA votes and other Media awards, are reviewed in addition to the Wolf’s keen Brownlow-scouting eye.

Player  Predicted Votes Price
Nat Fyfe 12 $4.50
Dustin Martin 11 $4.50
Tom Mitchell 10.5 $4.00
Jack Macrae 10 $21.00
Trent Cotchin 9 $67.00
Stephen Coniglio 9 $26.00
Rory Laird 8.5 $51.00
Max Gawn 8 $29.00
Jesse Hogan 7.5 $151.00
Steele Sidebottom 7.5 $23.00

1- Nat Fyfe ($4.50)
The Wolf’s preseason pick at $7, Fyfe has been on fire to start the year, with 4 expected 3-vote games. While his Fremantle side isn’t anywhere near the 2015 team that almost went all the way to a flag, Fyfe is a proven vote-getter and someone who can score 3 votes despite playing in a side that has lost by 77 points (like he did last round).

2- Dustin Martin ($4.50)
Dusty certainly hasn’t been at quite the level he was last year, but Wolfie thinks the umpires will always find a way to award him votes even if he isn’t at his best. Given the fact he is scoring more goals this year, the Wolf thinks Dusty is a chance at having polled in every single round this season just simply for the fact that the umpires love him, and love goal-scoring midfielders!

3- Tom Mitchell ($4.00)
He started the season off with a bang, but ‘Titch’ has slowed down of late- and eye-catching Hawk teammate Isaac Smith has sped up. The Wolf has him polling in 5 of 7 games, and his consistency is his greatest asset when it comes to an award like this. Way too short to back right now- given the sheer amount of money on him, but if his price climbs up he is certainly one to be following.

4- Jack Macrae ($21.00)
You won’t be getting $21 for much longer if Macrae keeps playing like this! Jack has been sensational this year and he is the only genuinely consistent Bulldog this season- highlighted by his outstanding display last round where he had 40 touches, 12 clearances, 8 tackles, 6 inside 50’s and a goal.

5- Trent Cotchin ($67.00)
He may not get the plaudits his higher profile teammate does, but Cotch has been in imperious form in 2018 and represents great value at $67. A former (retrospective) winner, you can trust that Cotchin will always be watched by the umpires, and his two 3-vote games so far have been great displays of leadership.

6- Stephen Coniglio ($26.00)
The inconsistencies and injuries have garnered most of the attention surrounding GWS, and all the while Stephen Coniglio has been quietly accumulating Brownlow votes. He has been racking up possessions (averaging 28.3 a game) but has also spent plenty of time in the forward half which has resulted in 7 goals. If he stays injury free you can trust he will keep the votes coming.

7- Rory Laird ($51.00)
Tom Mitchell isn’t the only player with a case of leather poisoning- Rory Laird has got it bad too! Averaging 35 disposals per game and 3rd in the league for rebound 50’s, what counts against Laird is the fact that a defender hasn’t won the Brownlow since 1993 (Gavin Wanganeen). His lack of goals doesn’t help, either.

8- Max Gawn ($29.00)
Speaking of positions that don’t win Brownlow’s, ruckman certainly don’t. Wolfie, though, is making an exception with Gawn, who racked up 16 votes in 2016 in his All-Australian year. If Gawn could straighten up in front of goals, the votes will keep flowing.

9- Jesse Hogan ($151.00)
Look what price has snuck into Wolfie’s top 10- $151! Look, let’s be real- he won’t win the Brownlow but Hogan is a genuine star who will be consistently polling votes if he continues to average 20 disposals and 2.4 goals a game.

10- Steele Sidebottom ($23.00)
As dependable as a Clydesdale, Sidebottom has been sensation in the early part of this year consistently scoring goals, racking up touches and setting up teammates. As always, there is plenty of competition for votes in Collingwood’s midfield, but Steele’s best is 3-vote worthy.

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