AFL 2018: Brownlow Medal Predictor- Round 10

AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal Predictor- Round 10 update

Wolfie loves a good spreadsheet, and with the competition starting to settle down and show some decipherable form lines, it is time for a Brownlow Medal predictor update. Jack Macrae and Nat Fyfe continue to lead the way thanks notable consistency and each have several locks for 3-vote games, while retrospective 2012 winner Trent Cotchin is sneaking up the ladder after his superlative leadership has led the Tigers to 8 wins from 10 games.
With 6 votes allocated each game, including .5 (if required) so as to ensure the polling is as consistent as possible (and resistant to bias)- this Predictor model allows for higher value selections closer to the event, when markets like Groups, Head to Heads and ‘To Poll A Vote In X Round’ are open. Multiple sources, including AFLCA votes and other Media awards, are reviewed in addition to the Wolf’s keen Brownlow-scouting eye.

Player  Predicted Votes Price
Nat Fyfe 16 $3.00
Jack Macrae 15 $9.00
Trent Cotchin 13 $21.00
Dustin Martin 12 $6.00
Tom Mitchell 10.5 $4.00
Patrick Dangerfield 10 $12.00
Jesse Hogan 10 $101.00
Patrick Cripps 10 $23.00
Steele Sidebottom 9.5 $34.00
Max Gawn 9 $34.00

1- Nat Fyfe ($3.00)
The Wolf’s preseason pick, Fyfe continues to firm in betting and is now down to $3 after opening at $7. His ability to conjure 3 votes is unquestionable, and he is a lock for 3 votes in at least 5 games so far. If he continues in this vein of form (and you’d be a brave punter to bet he won’t), it would seem the only thing that would stop him would be injuries or suspension.

2- Jack Macrae ($9.00)
$101 before the start of the season, Macrae’s odds have now been slashed to $9- a mere 8.9% of his best price. The Wolf has Macrae polling in 7 of his 10 games, with the unassuming mid failing to reach 30 disposals just once this year. His purple patch from rounds 7-9, which saw him average 41 disposals, 9.6 tackles, 10.6 clearances and 6 inside 50’s per game, could be a Brownlow-defining month.

3- Trent Cotchin ($21.00)
The Richmond skipper continues to fly under the radar this season, despite a strong return of 25 disposals (14 contested), 1.2 goal assists and 5.6 clearances per game. What will hurt him this year though, is his lack of goals. Cotch has only managed to slot 3 majors this year.

4- Dustin Martin ($6.00)
Dusty certainly hasn’t been at his Brownlow-winning best, but the Wolf just knows the umpires will find a way to give him votes, even if just the minimum. He has been spending more time forward, resulting in less disposals (and a lower efficiency) but he has still been able to influence games through either brute force or superior vision. His price is far too low for the Wolf’s liking and he will need to get a fair few 3 vote games from here (projected to have none, so far).

5- Tom Mitchell ($4.00)
After a sizzling start to the season, Mitchell’s contested presence and statistical influence over games has started to wane of late, and is far more sporadic. He needs to find a way to return to the stubborn player who willed himself on every single contest but either way Titch is far too short at the current quote to entertain.

6- Patrick Dangerfield ($12.00)
Much like Dusty, Danger is not playing at his Brownlow-winning best, but he is still exerting influence over games even when the statistics don’t stack up as well as they used to. He is always good for a goal a game, and his contested work is still first class. His price has doubled since the preseason, reflective of his performances.

7- Jesse Hogan ($101.00)
After all he went through last season, it is fantastic for all footy fans to see this young star at his best- but aside from the sentiment he is playing outstanding footy for an exciting side. He has kicked 26 goals but even more impressively, he has averaged 20 disposals and 7 marks a game- a remarkable testament towards his ever increasing motor and footy nous.

8- Patrick Cripps ($23.00)
Cripps would be sitting right at the top of the predictor if it wasn’t for the dire nature of his side’s season. His efforts have been herculean, dragging his side through games on his back in a strong display of leadership in the absence of Marc Murphy. His contested and clearance work is up there with the best in the competition right now. If he can get on the scoreboard more consistently he would start sewing up 3 votes even in a losing side.

9- Steele Sidebottom ($34.00)
Mr Reliable, Sidebottom has had a very solid start to the year and has shined despite competing for attention with a bevvy of other silky Collingwood midfielders. His run and drive on the outside has been outstanding (averaging 20 uncontested possessions per game), and he is often playing as the lone full-forward- a testament towards his versatility. Picking which Pies player out of Treloar, Sidebottom, Pendlebury and Grundy will nab the most votes is a lottery at this stage.

10- Max Gawn ($34.00)
What a fantastic season we have seen from the 2016 All-Australian ruckman. He has been a shining light for his side, even in their darkest times, consistently giving his midfielders first use of the footy whilst also providing a strong aerial presence at both ends of the ground. Don’t forget though punters, a ruckman hasn’t won the Brownlow since 1991. Don’t get too caught up in the hype!

Discuss