Brazil 2016: Day 11 Tips, Tue/Wed
Day 11 Feature Previews
Canoeing: Men’s C 1000m (Tue 10:00pm)
Germany’s Sebastian Brendel is the strongest in the field but since his victory in London the field is definitely closiong the gap. Moldova’s Serghei Tarnovschi has emerged as a legitimite contender and has the German looking over his shoulder. Brendel was fastest in the heats but not by much. Dos Santos, The Wolf’s value pick was second quickest while Tarnovschi was third. The Wolf was happy to lay Brendel and hasn’t changed his mind. One error can make all the difference and we have seen very few favourites win gold in the canoeing thus far.
Best: Serghei Tarnovshci ($6.00)
Value: Isaquias Queiroz Dos Santos ($15)
Swimming: Men’s 10k Marathon (Tue 10:00pm)
An extremely open affair this Games with $4.50 the field. Favouritsim is currently with American Jordan Wilimovsky who won the World Champs last year. He beat Dutch open water swimmer Ferry Weertman, who at 24 is coming into his prime. Expect Weertman to be amongst the medals. At the odds, The Wolf fancies local hope Allan do Carmo. The Brazilian finished 9th at the Worlds but he has the home ground advantage, which is significant given how choppy the conditions promise to be. Expect a few form reversals. The Aussie rep is Jarrod Poort ($34).
Bet: Allan do Carmo ($26)
Athletics: Women’s Pole Vault (Wed 10:45pm)
Katerina Stefanidi is the world number one and favourite but The Wolf is more than happy to lay he in what shapes as a very open field. Clearing your first attempt at any height is always important as it may be the difference between a gold medal and missing out altogether. Stefanidi has dominated the Diamon League but is unproven at this level. American Sandi Morris leads the field with a season best of 4.93 compared to Stefanidi’s 4.86. She was 4th at the world champs and has cleared 4.95 indoors. She is the one to beat while the value lies with New Zealand’s Eliza McCartney. At just 20 years of age she continues to set career best marks and her latest was a 4.80 in Dunedin earlier this year.
Best: Sandi Morris ($3.60)
Other: Eliza McCartney ($34)
Canoeing: Men’s Kayak Single 1000m (11:12pm)
Speed, power, technique and stamina are all required in this discipline. Poulse tops the betting but The Wold can see cracks in his armour. Poulsen saved his best for the final in Duisburg earlier this year but on that day it was Hoff and Pajic which caught the Wolf’s eye. They posted some of the fastest times of the day and after Pajic was fastest in his semi an upset was on the cards. Pajic was also fastest over the first half of the course in the final before penalties cost him in the final section of the course. At $34 he is a great bet. The Wolf says to back the Serbian at odds and Hoff, the bronze medalist form London.
Best: Max Hoff ($6.00)
Dejan Pajic: ($34)
Synchronized Swimming: Duet (Wed 3:00am)
As expected, Russian duo Natalia Ishchenko and Svetlana Roashina have dominated the Games. They are the reigning gold medalists and world champions and kicked off their program in impressive fashion with a “gypsy dance” routine. China sit second and look set for yet another silver behind the unbeatable Russians. Inexplicably, they’ve drifted from $1.08 to $1.10. Still short but morals.
Bet: Russia ($1.10)
Weightlifting: Men’s Over 105kg (Wed 8:00am)
The big boppers! All eyes will be on the ‘Iranian Hercules’ Behdad Salimi Kordasiabi as he attempts to defend his Games title, where he lifted 455kg. He is still only 26 but his preparation has hardly been ideal. He missed the World Weightlifting Championships in Houston last November as he required surgery on his knee after tearing an anterior cruciate ligament in training. That leaves him vulnerable to Georgia’s Lasha Talakhadze. Talakhadze is only 22 and on debut at the Games. He lifted 454kg to win the World Championships. Only 1kg away from Kordasiabi’s winning lift four years ago.
Bet: Lasha Talakhadze $2.10
Diving: Men’s 3m Springboard (Wed 7:00am)
There is some value around Rommel Pacheco, who won gold at the World Cup. The veteran is 30 now and is on the downswing of his career but can still feature. Recorded the second best dive in the prelim.
Bet: Rommel Pacheco ($9.00)
Men’s Boxing: Lightweight (60kg) (Wed 8:15am)
The Wolf’s tip to take out the gold medal in the lightweight division, Lazaro Alvarez, was defeated 3-0 in the semi-finals by Brazilian Robson Conceicao. Alvarez won gold at the 2015 World Championships in Doha and also won gold at the Pan American Games in Toronto, so the form that Conceicao brings to the final as an outsider stacks up very nicely. He’ll also have the support of the home crowd right behind him which gives him an extra advantage over Frenchman Sofiane Oumiha.
Bet: Robson Conceicao ($2.37)
Women’s Athletics: 1500m Final (Wed 11.30am)
It’s hard to go past world record holder and world champion Genzebe Dibaba in the 1500m especially after her impressive semi-final win in a time of 4:03.06. She recorded a world record time of 3:50.07 in Monaco in July 2015 and will be hard to beat in the final.
Bet: Genzebe Dibaba ($2.00)
Athletics: Men’s 110m Hurdles (11.45am)
Jamaican Omar McLeod has swept all before him this year. He has won three Diamond League events but most importantly has run five of the top seven times in 2016. Short but should win.
Bet: Omar McLeod ($1.80)
Beach Volleyball: Women’s Semi-Finals (12.59am)
Kerri Walsh Jennings has amazingly won three straight Olympic golds – all with partner Misty May – and will be looking to make it four on the trot with April Ross, who she defeated in the final in London. Won the Moscow and Rio Grand Slam. These are big match players. Have dropped just one set all tournament. Destiny awaits.
Bet: Walsh Jenninhs/Ross ($1.44)
Men’s Field Hockey Semi-Final: Argentina v Germany (Wed 1:00am)
The Wolf tipped the Germans at $5.50 to win the gold medal in the field hockey before the Olympics started and ahead of their semi-final against Argentina, they’re now the $2.50 favourite to win the gold medal. They topped Group B on 13 points ahead of Argentina in third on 8 points. Germany and Argentina played out a 4-all draw in the group stages but the Germans have showed more consistency across the tournament and The Wolf isn’t jumping off the current Olympic champions now. A third straight Olympic final awaits the Germans!
Bet: Germany ($1.72)
Athletics: Women’s Discus (Wed 12:20am)
The women faced treacherous conditions in the qualifying rounds when a significant downpour threw the cat among the pigeons. World number one and odds on favourite Sandra Perkovic was the best qualifier from Group A with a 64.81 while The Wolf’s tip of Caballero posted a 62.94. Aussie Dani Samuels was very impressive with her 64.46 and can definitely throw further in the final. The best qualifier overall was Perez in Group B but it must be said that the second group had favourable conditions. At the price we will stick with Caballero.
Bet: Caballero ($7.50)
Women’s Basketball: Australia v Serbia (12:00am)
The women’s quarter finals kicks off with the Opals taking on Serbia in a monster matchup. Serbia have been defensively strong but the Opals should have too much firepower with Liz Cambage combing into her own.
Bet: Australia -11.5 ($1.84)
Don’t forget to check out our full coverage of the Olympic Games.